The unfulfilled desire of my childhood during rainy season still pricks me with the onset of every monsoon. The sowing of paddy used to bring special pleasure as scores of men and women congregated in fields cracking jokes and singing folk songs while doing their chores. But what I miss is the wish of not having the opportunity to sit on the heavy wooden beam pulled by a pair of bullock driven by the man in the middle in the knee-deep water to make the land even. I always used to be silent spectator while other boys enjoyed the muddy water spreading all over their body, but now that memory compels me to think beyond in the wake of truant Monsoon and its impact on economic, socio and cultural aspects of the country.If we look at agricultural history of India it goes back to ten thousand years. Double monsoons used to bestow two harvests being reaped in one year, and local products reached other parts of the world via existing trade networks and foreign crops were also introduced here. The archaeological evidence of granary stocks of Indus Valley civilisation are the examples of its export to other countries.
Although India is among the world's biggest agricultural producers, labour-intensive, subsistence-level farming remains still prevalent. Therefore, the yearly monsoon here is a key economic event, but its direct impact on agricultural production is diminishing as the the share of agriculture has gone down by almost 10% in the last decade.
Agriculture's share of the economy has slowly shrank to 17.5% in 2008 from nearly 30% in the early 1990s, according to Morgan Stanley. The bad monsoon affects not only farm output but also demand for everything from fuel and motorbikes to shampoo and gold, adding pressure on a government struggling with a fiscal deficit which may be 6.8% of GDP this year.
Since only 42.4% of sown agricultural land is irrigated, the rest remains dependent on rainfall. As long as agriculture is restricted to 15% contribution to GDP and 60% contribution to employment, India is likely to witness a dismal scenario in the wake of bad monsoon.
In the past three years, growth in rural incomes has risen about 12% a year but bad monsoon would affect rural incomes and slash demand, forcing the government to offer more support for farmers. The analysts are also forecasting lower economic growth rate to 6% in 2009-10, from 6.7% in the previous year. Besides, the inflation could also rise to more than 5% by the end of this fiscal, due to supply-side pressures and would lead to hike in food prices.
On the contrary, good monsoons and bumper agricultural output in the recent years has in part lead to rural consumption in India, which actually proved to be a bulwark against the global economic downturn. Domestic consumption accounts for nearly 60% of GDP, a key factor in India's resilience amid the slowdown.
The governments needs to think over long term planning in view of the truant monsson playing spoilsport with our economy in which agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and fishing are still the largest economic sectors. They play a significant role in overall socio-economic development of India, despite their steady decline of share in the GDP.
Perhaps looking at existing scenario, the National Rainfed Area Authority (NRAA), an autonomous body under the Ministry of Agriculture, has chalked out a district-wise contingency plan to mitigate the impact of late monsoon. It has divided the sowing period into three phases and provided a detailed advisory on the planting of different crops.
As per the plan, farmers are advised to sow basmati paddy crop in Central Punjab and short-duration paddy variety along with green and blackgram, pigeonpea in eastern Uttar Pradesh, respectively, between July 15 and 31. Moreover, high-breed bajra and sorghum can be planted in the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during this period.
Although this is one example to avert a food crisis scenario, but the situation could become a cause for concern in several parts of the country due to erratic monsoon, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar also realises. Because so far Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Manipur have declared drought in some of their districts.
The UPA government is stated to have taken to step up agriculture credit so that farmers come out of the clutches of unscrupulous moneylenders. But, whenever we discuss about the plight of farmers it remains incomplete without mentioning the peasants of Vidarbha, where in the past one decade the region has witnessed the continuous deaths of farmers in different districts. The toll figures have gone down, but it is yet to stop completely.
If we look at the core reasons we find that Maharshtra has about 57% of farm area, but only 40 to 45% is cultivated. While in Vidarbha region the agri-growth is too slow in comparison to rest of the state. The state is on the forefront of industrial development but share of agri-income is merely 19%.
The general impression is that farmers are committing suicide in only those areas where they had been practising cash crops but one incident in Madhya Pradesh’s Hoshangabad where a farmer ended his life as he failed repay the loan that he took for sowing of wheat has compelled the planners to think. This particular incident putsforth the fact that in the wake of green revolution peasants have resorted to maximum use of fertilizers, chemicals to kill insects and water through diesel pumps, thereby adding the cost of a crop. In case of not having adequate yield they fail to meet the cost, thereby fail to repay the amount they took on loan. Ultimately, they find no other way but to commit suicide.
The paradox of green revolution is being witnessed in the developed states of Punjab and Haryana where by the passage of time the cost of agriculture has increased manifold but the production is decreasing. The fecundity of the land has gradually reduced to the extent that it no longer is able to sustain even grasses. The excessive use of chemicals sprinkled to kill insects has destroyed even earthworms, leaches and snails which used to enliven the land for productivity.
The time has perhaps come we start re-thinking about socalled scientific or modern cultivation methods which bypassed the age-old practices of organic farming. In India the concept of organic form of agriculture was self-reliant as the seeds and manure were locally available. This method is still practical and is being practised in different parts on experimental basis, as it has negligible investment and least use of objects from market. Common perception is that yield in organic farming is less but after reclaiming the land spoiled through use of chemical fertilizers the productivity is once again restored.
But the shift towards organic farming is difficult to trickle down, as the government has to first take care of the abundance of livestock in the country. The dependence on chemical fertilizers have made the cattle-rearing a mean job. Once abundant with milk and curd our villages too are now moving towards pacaged milk, despite the fact that we have the world's largest cattle population (281 million).
If the government feels to think for long-term solution to restoring agricultural dependence with modern outlook it has to gradually shift part of mammoth subsidy worth Rs 80,000 crore given on fertilizers directly to those involved in cattle rearing. There are several countries in Europian and American continents where the money is being distributed directly to those who practice this chores.
Since the contribution of agriculture in employing India's male workforce has also declined from 75.9% in 1961 to 58% in 2003-04, the government can regenerate massive employment opportunity in rural areas from where a generational shift is witnessed towards urban areas in search of the same.
Besides, if we want to see that “Bharat” remains alive in villages with its rich ancient cultural legacy let us make them regain the past glory with the modern achievements so that we no longer shy away from going back to our roots in the hinterland of rural India to enjoy the monsoon albeit occasionally.