Almost coinciding with the 13th round of Sino-Indian border talks (NewDelhi, August 7-8, 2009), an article (in Chinese language) hasappeared in China captioned `If China takes a little action, theso-called Great Indian Federation can be broken up. It was written byone Zhong Guo Zhan and Lue Gang and it appeared on the website ofChina's International Institute for Strategic Studies,that is www.iiss.cn . The article has now been removed after furious Indianprotests, but not before the article was reproduced in several otherstrategic and military websites of the country . It targetted thedomestic Chinese audience but was also meant to sent strong signals toIndia -- if you get too close to the US and become part of itsanti-China designs, China can create huge problems for India.
There are hardly any think tank in China that is not linked to somegovernment branch or the other. Independent think tanks dont exist inChina . So let us see where the IISS , whose website ran that "splitIndia" article that created such a flutter in India , is placed in theChinese hierarchy. All available information suggests that it is partof the Second (Intelligence) Department of the PLA General StaffHeadquarters . The second department is responsible for collectingmilitary information and it runs the scores of Chinese militaryattaches at Chinese embassies abroad as well as several clandestinespecial agents sent to foreign countries to collect militaryinformation. It also produces the analysis of information publiclypublished in foreign countries.
The Second Department oversees military human intelligence (HUMINT)collection, widely exploits open source materials, fuses HUMINT,signals intelligence (SIGINT), and imagery intelligence data, anddisseminates finished intelligence products to the CMC and otherconsumers. Preliminary fusion is carried out by the SecondDepartment’s Analysis Bureau which mans the National Watch Center, thefocal point for national-level indications and warning. In-depthanalysis is carried out by regional bureaus.
Although traditionally the Second Department of the General StaffDepartment was responsible for military intelligence, it is beginningto increasingly focus on scientific and technological intelligence inthe military field, following the example of Russian agencies instepping up the work of collecting scientific and technologicalinformation from the West.
The research institute under the Second Department of the GeneralStaff Headquarters is publicly known as the Institute forInternational Strategic Studies; its internal classified publicationMOVEMENTS OF FOREIGN ARMIES [WAI JUN DONGTAI] is published every 10days and transmitted to units at the division level.The Second Department of the PLA General Staff is headed by a veryaggresive officer, Lt General Xiong Guangkhai. So when a researchinstitute under such an officer talks of breaking up India, there isno way Delhi could wish it away. Let us see the salient points thatthe controversial article made .
According to the article, if India today relies on any thing forunity, it is the Hindu religion. The partition of the country wasbased on religion. Stating that today nation states are the maincurrent in the world, it has said that India could only be termed nowas a `Hindu Religious state`. Adding that Hinduism is a decadentreligion as it allows caste exploitation and is unhelpful to thecountry's modernization, it described the Indian government as one ina dilemma with regard to eradication of the caste system as itrealizes that the process to do away with castes may shake thefoundation of the consciousness of the Indian nation.
The writer has argued that in view of the above, China in its owninterest and the progress of whole Asia, should join forces withdifferent nationalities like Assamese, Tamils, and Kashmiris andsupport the latter in establishing independent nation-states of theirown, out of India. In particular, the ULFA in Assam, a territoryneighboring China, can be helped by China so that Assam realizes itsnational independence.
The article has also felt that for Bangladesh, the biggest threat isfrom India, which wants to develop a great Indian Federation extendingfrom Afghanistan to Myanmar. India is also targeting China withsupport to Vietnam`s efforts to occupy Nansha (Spratly) group ofislands in South China Sea. Hence the need for China`s consolidationof its alliance with Bangladesh, a country with which the US and Japanare also improving their relations to counter China. It has pointedout that China can give political support to Bangladesh enabling thelatter to encourage ethnic Bengalis in India to get rid of Indiancontrol and unite with Bangladesh as one Bengali nation; if the sameis not possible, creation of at least another free Bengali nationstate as a friendly neighbour of Bangladesh, would be desirable, forthe purpose of weakening India`s expansion and threat aimed at forminga 'unified South Asia'.
The punch line in the article has been that to split India, China canbring into its fold countries like Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan, supportULFA in attaining its goal for Assam's independence, back aspirationsof Indian nationalities like Tamils and Nagas, encourage Bangladesh togive a push to the independence of West Bengal and lastly recover the90,000 sq km. territory in Southern Tibet.
Wishing for India`s break-up into 20-30 nation-states like in Europe,the article has concluded by saying that if the consciousness ofnationalities in India could be aroused, social reforms in South Asiacan be achieved, the caste system can be eradicated and the region canmarch along the road of prosperity.
The Chinese article in question has outraged readers in India after itwas summarised by a well known China expert D S Rajan.
The External Affairs Ministry has also protested but without muchimpact. It has generally been seen that China is speaking in twovoices -- its diplomatic interlocutors have always shown understandingduring their dealings with their Indian counterparts, but its selectedmedia under its military set up is pouring venom on India in theirreporting.
There is no doubt that the IISS article was part of China'spsychological war against India. For some time, China has been veryupset with India's growing strategic relationship with the US . Iwould say this is China's way of telling India not to go too far withthe US.
We saw this kind of warnings appearing in the select Chinese media forabout a year or two , warning India to "stop backing the Tibetancounter-revolutionaries " or face the consequences. Then came thethunderous punch of 1962.
So if you see a smoke rise from China, be sure the fire is not toolong in coming.