IMD: monsoon shortfall at 64% for week ending Aug. 5

Rains were scanty in 25 out of the 36 weather divisions, while it was normal or excess in the remaining regions, the weather bureau says

India’s monsoon was 64% below normal in the week ended August 5, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Rains were 25% below the 50-year average of 503.4 millimeters between June 1 and August 5, the agency said. Last week's rainfall was the worst since mid-June. The weather department said only seven of India's 36 weather zones received normal rains during the past week. Weekly rainfall was scanty in 23 areas, deficient in 4 zones, while only 2 regions received excess rains. The soybean-producing central part of India got a negligible 1% of the normal rainfall, putting the crop at risk if the dry patch continues another week. Rainfall in cane-growing Uttar Pradesh was about 80% below normal, while Maharashtra, a major producer of sugar and cotton, saw about 90% shortfall in the week ended Aug. 5, the weather office said. "Subdued rainfall activity is likely to continue over western, central and peninsular parts of the country during next 2-3 days," the IMD says on its web site. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along the foot hills of Himalayas, northeastern states, West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar during next 2-3 days, it adds. Fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely along the west coast, according to the weather office. There will be an increase in rainfall activity over parts of east India, it adds. Rainfall activity might decrease along the foothills of Himalayas and northeast India in the days leading to 12th August. Meanwhile, the El Nino weather pattern that is currently developing could mean fewer storms this year in the Atlantic ocean. But, in Asia there are concerns that it could lead to a spike in food inflation on account of lower agriculture output. "A significant El Niño would negatively impact agricultural output in much of the Southern Hemisphere, setting in motion a chain reaction of higher food prices as the world economy recovers," Deutsche Bank analysts Niklas Olausson and Xun-Ming Ip wrote in a report. "Exporters Malaysia and Indonesia are potential beneficiaries in Asia. Importers China and India face higher food bills and uncertain agricultural prospects," they said. The El Nino effect causes dry weather conditions in some areas due to warmer-than-normal waters along the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean.