SINGAPORE: India's target of achieving double-digit growth will depend on the rainfall that it receives from June to September. That's because it impacts the sowing of summer crops in the country.
Food inflation is soaring because of last year's drought.
This year the monsoon is predicted to be near normal and has given hope to farmers and the government.
India is one of the world's largest tea producers. More than half the output comes from its northeastern Assam state.
Last year, Assam's tea production fell by 10 per cent as it was hit by a severe drought.
This year though the pre-monsoon showers have brought joy to the tea growers.
Farmers are expecting a bumper crop in the first phase of plucking after the region received three times more rain than expected.
Dr Mridul Hazarika, director, Tea Research Association, Assam, said: "This year we have had very good rainfall in the early part of the season. Rainfall is much above normal.
“If you compare it to last year, it is three times that of last year and it has been reflected in the crop in many areas. This is due to the fact that the tea requires moisture, tea requires water for its growth."
India's agriculture is almost wholly dependent on the monsoon showers.
Nearly two-thirds of the country's agriculture land is not irrigated and any change in the monsoon pattern spells havoc for the country.
This year as farmers look to the skies waiting to sow rice and lentils, the Met Department has predicted a near normal monsoon.
B.P. Yadav, spokesperson, India Meteorological Department. Said: "This year the monsoon would be normal. 96 to 104 per cent is the range of normal monsoon and the number which we are giving is 98 percent."
Last year, the Met department failed to gauge the extent of the El-Nino effect, which led to the weakest monsoon in more than three decades.
Agriculture output dipped sharply because of the drought.
As a result, food prices in the country have remained over 15 per cent since the last six to seven months.
Along with the farmers, India's Finance Ministry is also eagerly waiting for the rains, to bring down food prices.
India's economy cannot afford another failed monsoon. A poor spell of rain will further fuel food inflation and lead to additional interest rate hikes.
A normal monsoon is crucial not only for the farmers, but also the government that is working to achieve double-digit growth and keep its economic recovery on track. - CNA/vm