India should keep out of the unseemly race for Myanmar’s resources and focus instead on its long-term interests in that country
In ancient Indian chronicles, Myanmar was known as Suvarnabhumi or the
“golden land”' already famous for its boundless riches. Its fabled
wealth of gold, silver, precious gems and much more, attracted invaders
and traders from around the world. There is now a 21st century version
of a “gold rush” beginning to take hold as Myanmar opens its doors to
the world. Nothing demonstrates this more starkly than the U.S.
government decision to lift the prohibition on new American investment
in Myanmar including doing business with state owned oil companies. This
is despite the public plea from the leader of the country’s democracy
movement, Aung San Suu Kyi, that such deals should be avoided until
these entities embrace transparent practices and remove corruption.
Lure of opportunities
At the U.S.-Asean meeting at Siem Reap, Cambodia, which concluded on
July 13, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had her second meeting
with Myanmar President Thein Sein and the two later addressed the strong
business contingent accompanying Ms Clinton. It was announced that a
70-member U.S. business delegation would soon visit Myanmar to explore
trade and investment opportunities. Other western and Asian states are
likely to follow. Clearly the lure of commercial opportunities and
profit has triumphed over the hitherto careful alignment with the pace
set by Ms Suu Kyi. As this trend gains strength, Ms Suu Kyi will lose
one of the more potent bargaining chips she has in dealing with the
military dominated government, that is her ability to calibrate the
dismantling of western sanctions that have been in place for the past
two-and-a-half decades. This may well lead to opinion in India that we,
too, should join this rush or face further marginalisation in a key
neighbouring country.
This may not be the best strategy to pursue.
In Siem Reap, Mr. Thein Sein spelt out three reforms which were on the
top of his agenda. The first, he said, was to consolidate democracy,
build strong democratic institutions and restore the fundamental rights
of people, including the freedom of speech and assembly. The second was
to achieve lasting peace in the country by reaching out to the various
ethnic groups and bringing them into the national mainstream. And the
third was to transform an essentially centralised economy into a market
oriented one, open to foreign investment and commercial exchanges. In
each of these areas India can offer itself as a significant and
long-term partner, relevant to Myanmar’s own identified priority areas.
India should avoid falling victim to a herd mentality but instead focus
on establishing a long-term and sustainable presence in the country,
encompassing political, security and economic fields. Myanmar may
currently be the flavour of the month. For India, it must remain on the
menu as a key foreign policy and security challenge in a rapidly
changing environment.
Why is Myanmar important to India? Here is a neighbour with whom we
share a 1,600 km long land boundary. Four of our sensitive northeastern
States — Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram — lie along
this border. In dealing with the complex security situation prevailing
in this region, Myanmar's cooperation is often critical. The two
countries also share the strategic waters of the Bay of Bengal. Any
hostile or inimical presence along the Myanmarese coast or on its
off-shore islands facing India would be of great concern. Myanmar is
also critical to the success of India’s Look East policy. It is India’s
gateway to Asean and a transit country for trade and economic exchanges
with southern China. The sub-regional organisation of BIMSTEC, which
straddles both South and South-East Asia, gives a pivotal role to
Myanmar as a regional hub. India has long standing historical, cultural
and religious links with Myanmar which underpin a broad-based
relationship. There are cross-border ethnic links, too, with Naga and
Mizo tribes inhabiting both sides of the India-Myanmar border. The
prospects for an enhanced economic partnership, in particular, in the
energy sector will add to this substantive and comprehensive
relationship, but only as a significant component, not as a singular
rationale for engagement.
Significant presence
India’s interests require a significant, but not a dominant presence in
Myanmar. Countervailing China’s hitherto overweening presence in Myanmar
could not be an Indian preoccupation alone. Our interests are served as
Myanmar’s foreign relations become more diversified, lowering the
salience of Chinese influence.
In this context, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Myanmar in the
last week of May was a major initiative. India tried to align itself
with the priorities set by the Myanmar leadership itself, including Ms
Suu Kyi. The Prime Minister offered Indian expertise and support in the
setting up of strong democratic institutions and build capacity in
parliamentary practice and procedures. India’s own experience in
managing a multi-ethnic, multicultural and plural democracy is a useful
point of reference as Myanmar seeks to pursue reconciliation and
accommodation with its several ethnic minorities. On the economic side,
the visit resulted in a number of important agreements, the most notable
being the extension of a $500 million credit line to finance several
projects. The two sides agreed to launch a Border Area Development
Programme, which will seek to establish development corridors along the
ambitious cross-border transport links that are being put in place. This
will be of considerable relevance to the development of our own
northeast.
The Prime Minister met Ms Suu Kyi in Yangon and extended her an
invitation to visit India which she accepted. This will take place later
this year. The meeting was warm and friendly with both sides eager to
dispel the sense of disappointment which had resulted from India’s
engagement with the Myanmar generals while she was languishing under
house arrest.
Ms Suu Kyi focussed on the development challenges facing her country,
particularly the alleviation of poverty among her people and was keenly
interested in India’s own experience in this regard. As member of
Parliament, she has declared her intention to work hard for the
betterment of the lives of people, promote inter-ethnic harmony and
national reconciliation and contribute to the consolidation of democracy
in her country. She recognises that the way ahead is full of risks and
uncertainties. One cannot say that the reform process is irreversible.
Ms Suu Kyi has also been careful in her statements on the ethnic issue,
which could erupt in dangerous ways. The Kachin insurgency lingers on
and the recent violence in the Rakhine province involving the Rohingyas
has confronted her with difficult political challenges which are not
easy to resolve. In the initiatives that Ms Suu Kyi may adopt to take a
leadership role in addressing these challenges, India could be a
friendly and supportive partner.
India should, therefore, avoid being distracted by the gold rush and
remain focussed on the long term. It has a unique opportunity to align
itself with the priorities set by the leaders of Myanmar and make its
own contribution to enabling a successful political and economic
transition in a strategic neighbouring country.
This is a more sensible way of ensuring India’s political, economic and
security interests in its strategic neighbourhood than joining the
unseemly grab for resources that appears to have gripped Myanmar’s
erstwhile detractors.
(Shyam Saran is a former Foreign Secretary. He is currently Chairman,
Research and Information System for Developing Countries and Senior
Fellow, Centre for Policy Research.)